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January 23, 2005
Cautiously awaiting the blog tipping point; the persistent need for segmentation

Hypothetically, what would happen if blogging went the way of Nirvana, Pearl Jam, and Sound Garden?

The whole 'blog thing' couldn't be much more in your face that it is. It's in business, politics, on the news, everyone everywhere is talking about blogs.

What happens when 'blogging is no longer cool'. I mean, think back (for those of you who listened to Pearl Jam, Nirvana, etc) to when your favorite grunge band 'sold out', at least in your perception. Your favorite, "I'm one of like only a few people that know about them so that makes me cool" bands went from under the carpet to uber celebrity. It was a shocker, it was painful, and now people were criticizing them in ways you didn't know possible, oh, and all of your 'un-cool' friends were now listening too. As all things are relative, your relative coolness shrank precipitously, and you started seeking another Nirvana. (Good, we need you folks out there seeking the next thing...)

While blogging is likely to have the staying power, and this theory is likely to be bunk. I have a certain uneasyness about relying on the world of consumer generated media to drive the next generation of my brand. Brand Hijack and Open Source Marketing included - customers are fickle beings whose interests change rapidly and are hard to keep up with (at least for most of us, Wal-Mart's predictive powers through data patterns would blow your mind). We're staking part of our strategy on "the individual", but what happens when that individual changes?

For me, this only underscores the need for the constant segment - target - position analytics that take place around your customers & potential customers. However, don't go 'down with the customer'. There must be measures & metrics in place to know when you've gone too far with a an individual customer, and jettison them from your target market to stay near & dear to your core competencies. You then need to keep an eye on who's moving into your sphere of conversation next and engage them.

Point being: when your CGM customers who are blogging like mad no longer find blogs cool and get blogger burnout, where will you go? This will not be Nirvana if/when it happens?

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